1
 Are consumers too deep in hock?
5092
Question-Answer

2
 A lot of observers think so, 
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List

3
and,
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Same-Unit

4
 if they're right, 
5
condition

5
the whole economy as well as the spendthrifts among us could be hurt.
5001
span

6
 A sudden, forced cutback by consumers, 
5004
span

7
who normally account for about two-thirds of economic activity, 
6
elaboration-additional-e

8
would damp the economy at a time 
5005
Same-Unit

9
when plant-and-equipment spending is slowing 
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List

10
and deficit-racked governments can't readily take up the slack.
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List

11
 And another wave of bad loans would further batter many already-shaky lending institutions.
5008
List

12
 The worriers cite some worrisome trends.
5015
span

13
 During the almost seven-year-old economic expansion, inflation-adjusted gross national product, disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures have risen 30%, 
5011
Contrast

14
but inflation-adjusted consumer installment credit has surged 66%.
5011
Contrast

15
 And the ratio of installment debt to disposable personal income 
5012
span

16
-- personal income after taxes -- 
15
definition-e

17
has hit a high of about 18 1/2%.
5013
Same-Unit

18
 However, these figures don't seem to worry Thomas A. Durkin, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board. 
5086
span

19
In a paper 
5016
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20
presented at the recent annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economists in San Francisco, 
19
elaboration-additional-e

21
Mr. Durkin comments 
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attribution

22
that installment credit always grows rapidly in cyclical advances,
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List

23
 and growth in this cycle is very typical of earlier experiences.
5019
List

24
 He adds: 
5022
attribution

25
We are now witnessing a slowdown 
5022
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26
which,
5021
Same-Unit

27
 if history is a guide, 
28
condition

28
could persist for a while.
5020
span

29
 But what about the debt burden?
5026
Question-Answer

30
 Mr. Durkin doubts 
5024
attribution-n

31
that there is some magic level 
5024
span

32
at which the ratio of installment debt to disposable income indicates economic problems.
31
elaboration-object-attribute-e

33
 And, more importantly, 
5027
span

34
he says, 
33
attribution-e

35
the debt burden 
5028
span

36
measured other ways 
35
elaboration-object-attribute-e

37
is not really in uncharted waters.
5029
Same-Unit

38
 The chart below shows why 
5035
span

39
(see accompanying illustration 
5034
span

40
-- WSJ Oct. 23, 1989). 
5034
attribution-e

41
The ratio of consumer installment credit to disposable income, though up a bit, hasn't climbed steeply, 
5038
span

42
and such debt as a percent of household assets is little changed.
41
consequence-s

43
 Moreover, the burden of consumer credit payments relative to disposable income may be lower in this cycle than earlier, 
5039
span

44
Mr. Durkin says.
43
attribution

45
 He notes 
5043
attribution

46
that some revolving credit-card credit is actually convenience credit 
5043
span

47
being used simply as a handy way 
5040
span

48
of paying bills 
47
elaboration-object-attribute-e

49
rather than a handy way 
5041
span

50
of borrowing.
49
elaboration-object-attribute-e

51
 In addition, he says, 
52
attribution

52
longer maturities on automobile and other forms of installment credit boost the stock of debt faster than the flow of repayments and the accompanying payment burden.
5047
span

53
 And 
5051
Same-Unit

54
if you consider the changing distribution of credit, 
5048
span

55
Mr. Durkin says,
54
attribution-e

56
 much of the increase in debt in recent years is due to increasing credit use by higher-income families, 
5050
span

57
that is, those probably best able to handle it.
56
elaboration-additional-e

58
 Citing figures on home-equity loans, 
59
manner

59
he notes 
5053
span

60
that 11% of homeowners had home-equity credit accounts, 
5054
span

61
but the proportion rises to 16% of homeowners in the $45,000-$60,000 income range and 23% of homeowners with income above $60,000.
60
antithesis

62
 And much home-equity credit is used conservatively.
5055
elaboration-additional

63
 The most frequent use is home improvement, 
5056
span

64
which presumably improves the value of the property, 
63
elaboration-additional-e

65
Mr. Durkin says.
5056
attribution

66
 So, it isn't surprising that consumer-credit delinquencies at banks remain, 
5066
span

67
as the chart shows,
66
attribution-e

68
 reassuringly below some earlier highs 
5065
span

69
(see accompanying illustration 
5064
span

70
-- WSJ Oct. 23, 1989). 
69
attribution-e

71
 A severe recession could, of course, raise delinquency rates,
72
concession

72
 but so far the current levels of consumer debt don't seem to loom as a major threat.
5076
span

73
 In fact, the current weakness in auto buying and department-store sales and the gradual upturn in the household saving rate suggest 
74
attribution

74
that consumers, conservative as ever, are already clutching their purses a bit more tightly.
5069
span

75
 In July, consumer installment credit outstanding fell for the first time since January 1987.
5083
span

76
 Consumers appear unwilling to add to their leverage 
5070
span

77
to support their spending, 
76
purpose-e

78
Bruce Steinberg, a Merrill Lynch economist, says.
5070
attribution

79
 As a result, household debt appears to be stabilizing at around 63% of GNP.
5082
Cause-Result

80
 Consumers, credit cards in hand, aren't running amok through the shopping malls 
5075
List

81
-- or putting the economy at any great risk.
5075
List

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example

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elaboration-object-attribute-e

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circumstance

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multinuc
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comment-e

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List

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Comparison

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Comparison

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multinuc
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elaboration-object-attribute-e

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elaboration-additional

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example

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explanation-argumentative

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interpretation-s

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comment-e

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multinuc
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Cause-Result

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multinuc
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multinuc
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evidence

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explanation-argumentative

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Question-Answer

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multinuc
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interpretation-s

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evidence

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circumstance

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multinuc
18
evidence

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span
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Contrast

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explanation-argumentative

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