1
 Wall Street is just about ready to line the bird cage with paper stocks.
5001
span

2
 For three years, a healthy economy and the export-boosting effects of a weak dollar propelled sales and earnings of the big paper companies to record levels.
5002
span

3
 As the good times rolled 
5005
circumstance

4
they more than doubled their prices for pulp, a raw material
5004
span

5
 used in all sorts of paper,
4
elaboration-object-attribute-e

6
 to $830 a metric ton this past spring from $380 a ton at the start of 1986.
5005
Same-Unit

7
 But now the companies are getting into trouble 
5007
Cause-Result

8
because they undertook a record expansion program 
5008
Temporal-Same-Time

9
while they were raising prices sharply.
5008
Temporal-Same-Time

10
 Third-quarter profits fell at several companies.
5009
Cause-Result

11
 Put your money in a good utility or bank stock, not a paper company, 
5011
span

12
advises George Adler of Smith Barney.
11
attribution

13
 Other analysts are nearly as pessimistic. 
5014
span

14
Gary Palmero of Oppenheimer & Co. expects a 30% decline in earnings between now and 1991 for commodity-oriented paper companies,
5015
span

15
 which account for the majority of the industry.
14
elaboration-additional-e

16
 Robert Schneider of Duff & Phelps sees paper-company stock prices falling 10% to 15% in 1990, perhaps 25% 
5017
span

17
if there's a recession.
16
condition

18
 Paper companies concede that business has been off recently.
5019
span

19
 But they attribute much of the weakness to customer inventory reductions.
5020
List

20
 Generally they maintain 
5023
attribution

21
that,
5023
Same-Unit

22
 barring a recession and a further strengthening of the dollar against foreign currencies,
23
circumstance

23
 the industry isn't headed for a prolonged slump.
5022
span

24
 It won't be an earthshaking drop,
5025
span

25
 a Weyerhaeuser spokesman says.
24
attribution

26
 Last week Mr. Adler lowered his rating from hold to avoid on Boise Cascade, Champion International, Great Northern Nekoosa, International Paper, Louisiana Pacific and Weyerhaeuser.
5027
List

27
 Oppenheimer's Mr. Palmero, meanwhile, is steering clear of Gaylord Container, Stone Container and Federal Paper Board. 
5027
List

28
Mr. Schneider is cool to Georgia Pacific and Abitibi-Price.
5027
List

29
 Lawrence Ross of PaineWebber would avoid Union Camp.
5027
List

30
 The companies in question believe
31
attribution

31
 the analysts are too pessimistic. 
5029
span

32
Great Northern Nekoosa said, 
5033
attribution

33
The odds of the dire predictions
5032
span

34
 about us being right 
33
elaboration-object-attribute-e

35
are small.
5033
Same-Unit

36
 International Paper emphasizes 
5036
attribution

37
that it is better positioned than most companies for the coming overcapacity 
5036
span

38
because its individual mills can make more than one grade of paper.
37
result

39
 A Boise-Cascade spokesman referred to a speech by Chairman John Fery,
5037
span

40
 in which he said 
5039
attribution

41
that markets generally are stable,
5039
span

42
 although some risk of further price deterioration exists.
41
antithesis

43
 Stone Container Chairman Roger Stone said 
44
attribution

44
that, unlike for some other paper products, demand for Stone's principal commodity, unbleached containerboard, remains strong.
5040
span

45
 He expects the price for that product to rise even more next year.
5040
elaboration-additional

46
 Gaylord Container said
5044
attribution

47
 analysts are skeptical of it
5044
span

48
 because it's carrying a lot of debt.
47
reason

49
 Champion International said,
5046
attribution

50
 We've gotten our costs down 
5047
circumstance

51
and we're better positioned for any cyclical downturn 
5047
Comparison

52
than we've ever been.
5047
Comparison

53
 Louisiana Pacific and Georgia Pacific said 
5049
attribution

54
a number of other analysts are recommending them
5049
span

55
 because of their strong wood-products business.
54
reason

56
 Federal Paper Board said,
57
attribution

57
 We're not as exposed as the popular perception of us.
5050
span

58
 The company explained 
5054
attribution

59
that its main product, bleached paperboard,
5053
span

60
 which goes into some advertising materials and white boxes,
59
elaboration-additional-e

61
 historically doesn't have sharp price swings.
5054
Same-Unit

62
 Because the stock prices of some paper companies already reflect an expected profit slump,
5058
Cause-Result

63
 PaineWebber's Mr. Ross says
5057
attribution

64
 he thinks 
65
attribution

65
that next year the share prices of some companies may fall at most only 5% to 10%. 
5057
span

66
A company such as Federal Paper Board may be overly discounted
5060
List

67
 and looks tempting to him,
5060
List

68
 he says,
5060
attribution

69
 though he isn't yet recommending the shares.
5061
antithesis

70
 Wall Street isn't avoiding everything 
5064
span

71
connected with paper.
70
elaboration-object-attribute-e

72
 Mr. Palmero recommends Temple-Inland,
5066
span

73
 explaining 
5069
attribution

74
that it is virtually the sole major paper company 
5068
span

75
not undergoing a major capacity expansion,
74
elaboration-object-attribute-e

76
 and thus should be able to lower long-term debt substantially next year.
5069
Cause-Result

77
 A Temple-Inland spokesman said 
5072
attribution

78
the company expects record earnings in 1989,
5072
List

79
 and we're still pretty bullish on 1990.
5072
List

80
 The analysts say 
81
attribution

81
their gloomy forecasts have a flip side.
5074
span

82
 Some take a warm view of consumer-oriented paper companies, 
5076
span

83
which buy pulp from the commodity producers 
5077
List

84
and should benefit from the expected declines in pulp prices.
5077
List

85
 Estimates on how much pulp prices will fall next year currently run between $150 and $250 a metric ton.
5076
elaboration-additional

86
 Analysts agree 
87
attribution

87
that the price drop should especially benefit the two big tissue makers, Scott Paper and Kimberly-Clark.
5080
span

88
 A spokesman for Scott says
89
attribution

89
 that 
5082
span

90
assuming the price of pulp continues to soften,
91
circumstance

91
 We should do well.
5083
span

5001
span
5063
Contrast

5002
span
1
explanation-argumentative

5003
span
5009
concession

5004
span
5005
Same-Unit

5005
multinuc
5003
span

5006
span
5012
span

5007
multinuc
5009
Cause-Result

5008
multinuc
5007
Cause-Result

5009
multinuc
5006
span

5010
span



5011
span
5006
comment

5012
span
5013
span

5013
span
2
elaboration-additional

5014
span
5018
Statement-Response

5015
span
5016
List

5016
multinuc
13
example

5017
span
5016
List

5018
multinuc
5026
List

5019
span
5018
Statement-Response

5020
multinuc
18
explanation-argumentative

5021
span
5024
span

5022
span
5023
Same-Unit

5023
multinuc
5021
span

5024
span
5020
List

5025
span
5021
elaboration-additional

5026
multinuc
5055
span

5027
multinuc
5028
span

5028
span
5026
List

5029
span
5030
span

5030
span
5027
evaluation-s

5031
span



5032
span
5033
Same-Unit

5033
multinuc
5042
span

5034
multinuc
5029
example

5035
span
5034
List

5036
span
5035
span

5037
span
5034
List

5038
span
39
elaboration-object-attribute-e

5039
span
5038
span

5040
span
5041
span

5041
span
5034
List

5042
span
5034
List

5043
span
5034
List

5044
span
5043
span

5045
span
5034
List

5046
span
5045
span

5047
multinuc
5046
span

5048
span
5034
List

5049
span
5048
span

5050
span
5051
span

5051
span
5034
List

5052
span
5050
explanation-argumentative

5053
span
5054
Same-Unit

5054
multinuc
5052
span

5055
span
5012
evaluation-s

5056
span
5058
Cause-Result

5057
span
5056
span

5058
multinuc
5059
span

5059
span
5026
elaboration-additional

5060
multinuc
5061
span

5061
span
5062
span

5062
span
5058
elaboration-additional

5063
multinuc



5064
span
5065
span

5065
span
5063
Contrast

5066
span
5070
span

5067
span
72
elaboration-additional

5068
span
5069
Cause-Result

5069
multinuc
5067
span

5070
span
5073
List

5071
span
5066
elaboration-additional

5072
multinuc
5071
span

5073
multinuc
5064
explanation-argumentative

5074
span
5075
span

5075
span
5073
List

5076
span
5078
span

5077
multinuc
82
elaboration-additional-e

5078
span
5079
span

5079
span
5074
example

5080
span
5081
span

5081
span
5078
evaluation-s

5082
span
5084
Same-Unit

5083
span
5084
Same-Unit

5084
multinuc
5080
elaboration-additional

